You have JJ vs AK. You're a slight favorite, but for agruments sake we'll say it's 50-50. You raise, and AK just flat calls. The flop comes 5-3-9 rainbow (you're about 75% favorite). You bet the pot. AK calls.. TURN is a 9 (you're about an 85% favorite). You bet, AK again calls (OK so he's a donkey). The RIVER is a K. You check, he bets, you make a crying call.
Now the conventional wisdom is it's a suck out. Is this truly a suck out?
Yes, after the Turn you were a 85% favorite. But TECHNICALLY he had a 50/50 chance to HIT an A or K by the river, not just on the flop.
Luck plays a HUGE factor in poker. You have no control of how the cards come out. That's all predetermined by the shuffle. SKILL comes into play to determine how much money you'll win or lose DEPENDING on luck. The TRUE skill comes in reading and being able to get the most out of winning hands and losing the least when you're beat.
So... SKILL is not about negating the effects of LUCK over time, but using LUCK to your benefit.
The Race.
I'll Only Play A Quick One!
I burned through my FullTilt bankroll a month or so ago, and the majority of my Titan Poker bankroll, being a donkey. I've been reluctant to put money back in FTP. So I've been using Titan to slowly build that up. I've also switched to limit (again, these are micro limits).
This morning, I had some time before work and figured I'd play some .25/.50 limit. I hop to a table and wait until I'm in the BB. First hand, Ah-Qh. Very nice. It limps around to me (seriously about 6 limpers). I raise, everyone calls.
FLOP: 4h-5h-Ac. SWEET! Top pair and nut flush draw. The SB checks, I bet, EVERYONE calls. Nice lookin' pot.
TURN: 7h- let's hope no one was crazy enough to call me with a 3h-6h or 6h-8h. I bet, and am raised and re-raised, by two people, until it's capped.
River: Jh. I bet out, still think it's good, and it ends up being capped again.
One guy shows 3h-6c (whew!), the second guy showed Khx. Ended up tripling my $5.00 buy-in. Went one round and finished with about $17 and padded my Titan roll a bit.
I Missed It By *That* Much!
I was listening to Phil Gordon's Poker Edge Podcast (from ESPN) and he commented that this week he was actually in Bristol, CT. That's the location of ESPN's headquarters. It's also about 20 minutes west of Hartford, CT... which is where I live. Of course, I was listening to it this morning, but it was posted yesterday. At the end he informs his listeners that he would be going to Foxwoods to play some 1-2 No Limit! AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!! I sooooo would have dropped everything and headed down last night if I knew he was going to be there! Sonofabitch!
Limit vs NL... online.
I think when it comes to online poker, Limit is more my game. I keep a small bankroll on Titan Poker and it has gotten low. I started to build it up slowly playing their micro limits, NL game. WELL, that wasn't going well. I'd get impatient and make a mistake (which I do a lot) and all the money I've made up was gone. (I'm definitely better at NL live than online).
Last night I switched over to Limit and jumped in with my entire miniscule balance. I was playing the "higher" micro limits (.25/.50). And managed to get get some of the bankroll back. It was a full table and it slowly broke down to only two people left. So I played HU cash game for a bit. At first, I had a hard time because my opponent had a HUGE stack compared to mine, and he could call me down to the river with A high. I had to make sure I had a hand (I had never played heads up CASH game before and it was a bit different feel than a heads up SnG). Overall we were about even for the HU, he was probalby ahead a couple of bucks. Occasionally a 3rd person would jump in, but wouldn't last too long. Finally monster stack left, leaving me with someone who had about half of the chips that I had. A few hands in, he was about to go broke, when a 3rd person jumped in. I finished off the first guy, and figured I'd play a hand or two with the next guy before calling it a night. About 30 minutes later I had his entire stack too. Ahh... heads up, how I love thee.
For the night, limit got me back all the money I lost playing NL. I really should leave the NL to live play.... I need to get to Foxwoods.
Titan Freeroll (Weekly Depositors)
Had the opportunity to play in this freeroll Saturday evening. As it's a freeroll, I don't have a lot at stake in it. It goes off with 803 people. Top 30 pay.
So VERY early on in the tournament, a guy at our table gets a large chip lead. I'm guessing he had to leave or something because he started going all-in on every hand. He was showing such crap and getting lucky. Then he starts to lose a few of them and is no longer the chip leader. I finally decide to look him up. I'm in the SB, he was in middle position and pushes all-in. I have K9o. I call (I have about 80 more chips than he does), figuring it's a freeroll, so if I'm out, no biggie, but if I win, I have a nice chip stack. I am a little worried because if any of the other folks wake up with a hand, they might call. But hopefully my call scares them away. All for naught, it folds around to him. Sure enough, he actually had a hand AT that time and cripples me. Oh well. Blinds are 10/20, but I have a few hands before I'm in the blinds again.
Long story short, about I managed to work that stack up to about 17,000, and finished in 49th place. On a stupid play too. Pushed All-in on a missed (something like 228) flop with AK. He had an overpair and I was gone. But was still proud of my strong battle back.
HERPES LIVES!
Heads Up: Over Betting
I love heads up play. Full Tilt has 4 person heads up tournaments. I LOVE THOSE! Booked a win in one last night. Which I made the bad beat I took right before that easier to take
--- 18 person $8 token tournament. First hand I"m dealt JJ in the SB- Button raises 3 times BB. I re-raise 3 times that. He pushes All-in. Too me that says, no AA or KK since he'd want to put in a smaller raise to keep me on the hook. Maybe QQs, but could easily be a coin flip, and I'd risk a coin flip early to double up and have a nice healthy stack. Wasn't a coin flip... he pops, Kd-3d. Hits his K on the river. I'm out. I took it OK. Stayed around the table to talk some sh-t. Was not suprised to see that guy knocked out 3 people later. So I hoped into that 4 person HU tournament.
Anyway on to the Subject matter. I had some time this morning while my daughter was waking up and jumped into a $5 heads up match. Blinds are low, and I'm widdling the guy down. Every once in a while, I'll check the flop, he'll push 300-400 into an 60 pot?!?! Unless I have a hand, I'm folding. Even if he is bluffing. I'm not going to lose 2/3rd of my stack for 30 chips. So I wait until I get a hand, have him do it, and pop him back. He folds. Sure, he'll get some back, but still. At least he didn't do it every hand. Probably when he hit low or middle pair, or had a small pair. We checked a lot of hands down when he had nothing. But I just couldn't see the benefit of doing that, he would win VERY little, unless I had a strong hand.
He liked to slowplay Kings (which he got twice). Once he won a little bit off me: I hit middle pair, and he bet min amount on flop and turn and made a 1/2 pot bet (still small I think half pot was 80) on the river. 2nd time he slowplayed them, I flopped (or turned, forget which) a straight. Got him down to 400. Few hands later, he went all-in with J4 and I had AT, which held up.
The Lesson: In Heads Up, don't overbet the pot early on. You'll only get called by a strong hand. If you're bluffing you're going to lose chips, and if you have a monster, you won't action that often.
At the Same Time
I was also playing in the $8 token (value: $26) 18 player SnG. Top 5 get tokens, 6 gets money. That one took some patience. I got no good hands and saw my stack dwindling. Before the merge, I was able to double up which put me at just over the original starting chips of $1500. I finally got some cards and chips, stole some pots, and was manage to make my way to the token cash.
Now I need to decide if I want to use it to win a $75 token or enter a Guarnteed $26 tournament. Hmm...
---------------
In one of the SnGs I was playing, I found this hand to be interesting. Basically, I played a hand a certain way, NOT to win money, but to NOT provide info.
In the BB (30/60), I'm dealt pocket 6s. It folds around to the Button who calls, the SB completes, and I check. I was kind of worried about the button limp. Button was known to raise if it folded to him or had minimal limpers.
(180 in the pot)
The Flop wasn't too bad, 2c-Kh-3c.
SB bets, 120, I call, Button folds... guess I didn't need to worry. My call was poor play. I thought I might have the best hand, but still wanted the set before I got aggressive.
(420 in the pot)
TURN: 4d Gives me a gutshot, and still only one over card. But I'm still scared.
SB Bets 360, I call. I only call because if I bet and he re-raises a significant amount, I'll fold.
(1140 in the pot)
RIVER: 6s, no flush possiblities. My fears are gone, but now I'm embarrassed about how I played this hand.
SB bets 600, I re-raise to 1800, he folds. Now I may have done the same type of re-raise should I have played this hand better from the beginning. But I knowingly raised that hoping he'd fold and I wouldn't have to show my catch, no value bet there.
The worst part of this hand is that I'm the chip leader (started hand as chip leader w/ 3660 vs SB's 2355) and I still had this fear. Felt like a complete donkey on this hand.
The funny thing is that it worked for me. I was more than likely ahead the entire time and won more money than if I would have been aggressive early one.
Interesting observation: I could have played this correctly, two ways:
- Aggressive after the flop- wouldn't have made so much money.
- Confident my hand was best... same way I played it, got the same amount (maybe a min raise on the river to try to get a call).
Last Minute Decision to Play
Last night, instead of playing poker, I watched a bunch of it that I had TiVo'd. WSOP 2006, Poker Superstars III and GSN High Stakes. First, ESPN can put together a good show, but can't TOUCH High Stakes Poker with a 10' pole! The best poker on TV, and there's A LOT out there. Poker Superstars III is pretty good, but it's not about the poker, but about the tournament format.
Anyway, afterwards, the Mrs and I watch some shows we had TiVo'd (Treasure Hunters and My Name Is Earl), then she goes to bed. It's getting late, so I figure I'll head to bed shortly too. Hop on the computer, um.. just to check my poker sites (can't get on to Titan to verify I'm registered for the Weekly Depositors Freeroll on Saturday). While I'm on Full Tilt, I decide to see if there are any heads up matches waiting to take off. None at the moment. OK. Well, let's just browse through the SnGs. Hmmm... Well, there's a $8+ token 18 person SnG about to take off. Yeah, why not. CLICK. Oh look a $5 18 person SnG is also about to take off. I could use a little extra cash in my account... CLICK.
Can you say junkie?
Anyway, those turned out to be good choices.
$5 SnG. This one I started off strong, getting some good hands and building an early chip stack.
One key hand - Blinds 25/50 (no SB).
Dealt (K-Jo) on the button. Two limpers, I limp (not a great play, but didn't want to be re-raised with this hand), BB checks.
Flop was decent for me... K - J - K. Gotta play carefully in order to get any money.
BB check, check, bet 150, I call, checkers fold. I'm praying for a K or a J in their hand!
Turn is a blank. Bettor checks. I want to bet, but figure I'll lose him, so I check.
River is a 9, Bettor Checks. Pot is about 500, I bet 350, which... is enough to get a call as he 8-9. He was surprised to see my KJ. If only he knew he was 98% to lose preflop!
We hit the "final table" (basically the 2 tables merged). I had 8000 in chips, 2nd place had 3500. Unfortunately, my stack would fluctuate highly as we got closer to the bubble (top 4 paid).
I was almost crippled with 7 people left, I stepped on a landmind. I was 2nd in chips (5220) and tangled with 4th in chips (but we were close in chips).
I picked up AQo on the button (blinds were 200/400).
PREFLOP: Folds to me I raise to 1400, SB just calls, BB folds.
FLOP: 9-2-2 rainbow. WHIFF, but with just a smooth call, he probably missed this too. He could have 99 (but might have raised preflop), and could have A9. He could have a smaller pair too. I thought and pushed all-in for 3820. He thinks, and thinks. It looks like he's going to time-out fold. So I'm feeling better. He finally calls, and flips over AK. ARRRRGGHH!
TURN is a 3. I'm pretty much done. Gonna be left with less than 1000 in chips.
I check my other SnG to see how I'm fairing in that one. I play my hand there.
I come back to this table, have a marginal hand and want to double check my chip stack before pushing all-in. HUH??? I have my original stack plus 200. Click on Hand history...
AH, the river was a 2nd 3. Giving us BOTH 2s and 3s with an A kicker... SWEET SUCKOUT!
It rejuvenated me. I played hard, and managed to get heads up with a slight chip DISadvantage. Worked it up to a BIG chip advantage... dropped it down to about 5000 to 22,000. Built it back up to even money, then proceed to drop it and finish in 2nd.
I felt good about the play and was glad I finished with some good cash.
New Section
I put in a new section on the sidebar today.
I don't often tell bad beats, and I can usually let them run off of me without too much tilting, but sometimes I just need to vent. So go ahead and skip it unless you like to read bad beats (these aren't crushing beats, just ones that pop up day-to-day that all poker players come across.
Flop a Set.. Fold a Set
2nd hand of a turbo Cardiff ($1 sng, shorthanded).
In the cutoff, I'm dealt pocket fives.
UTG folds.
UTG+1 min raises to 20.
I call.
Button calls.
SB raises TO 80.
Everyone, like sheep, calls the extra 60.
FLOP: Ah-5h-Qh. YES A SET, could be in trouble, but I still will likely get some chips in the pot.
SB ALL-IN - 910. No problem, if he had the flush he probably wouldn't have bet it so heavy. I'll be calling that!
BB Calls... OK, now I'm worried... think, think.... I could still be good.
UTG+1 Calls.. Adios Set.
SB had Aces (no heart).
BB had K-10 off (king of heats) flush and straight draw.
UTG+1 9h-10h flush.
TURN came another heart, giving K10 the win.
Obvious lay down for me. But still hurts to put down a set. Might have been my first time.
A much needed Vacation - non poker related.
OK. Well, yet another long while w/o a post. I have SOME excuse this time. I was away with the family on vacation. It was our first actual vacation since our daughter (who's now 2 1/2). In the past we had taken all our vacations to visit her family and my family. But now that we live two hours away from my wife's family and we seem them every month, we actually have one free week.
We decided to stay with in driving distance, and headed up to the White Mountains of New Hampshire. VERY nice! My daughter LOVED the pool. We got her some floaties, and one of those big long pink foam "noodles". She put the noodle under her arms, swam around singing, "I'm swimmin' like a noodle." She's so precious.
We also spent a lot of time at the playground in town. Had a big jungle gym in the playground and a little water area that the kids could run around and get soaked.
We did some typical touristy things. Went up a big gondola to the top of a mountain. But it was too buggy and cloudy to see. We also drove to the top of White Mountain (scary ass road!), 6288ft, but again, cloudy and didn't have much view from the top. On the way up (and down) we were able to stop and get some breathtaking views.
There's also a little amusement park there, called Storyland. Has a bunch of rides and sets up based on fairy tales. It was perfect for her age and we spent the whole day there.
It was just a nice relaxing vacation, and much needed. And an entire week without poker! I don't know how I tolerated it!
Herpes Lives!
I was playing in a $2.40 Zurich (turbo 10 handed). I made the mistake of selecting turbo 10 handed. Blinds go too fast. I like Turbo 6 handed. ANYWAY... I was super card dead. And people were playing kinda tight. So I found myself with 7 people left (blinds at 150/300) with about 650. I REALLY got nothing to play. A two levels (50/100) earlier I got AA in the BB. Folded to SB who called. I raised to 300, he folded.
Anyway I'm in the BB and have half my chips, it's folded to me. In teh SB I go all in, and the BB folds. I get some marginal hands, I battle back. I'm short stacked 4 handed. Battled some more. Got REALLY lucky on two hands, doubling through the chip leader twice. Ended up 3 handed, and I was the chip leader. I ended up taking it home.
HERPES LIVES ON!
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They call me, Herpes. Just when you think you got rid of me, I'm back!
Multi Tabling
I like to multi-table. Usually, I like to play 2 maybe three. Usually a combination of SnGs and Cash games.
This morning I played a heads-up SnG on FTP and lost. So I decided to play a 2nd one. As I started my 2nd heads-up tournament, I started another heads up match on Titan.
I managed to win both (after falling behind in both). But let me tell you, I suggest you don't multi-table heads up? You're in every hand and have to concentrate on each match. Woo! That was a mistake.
Note: I like Phil Gordon, but his fake laugh (ESPN's Poker Edge Podcast) is SOOOO annoying (don't hate me Dawn).
Atlantic City closing Down?
From CNN:
New Jersey begins statewide shutdown
Lottery stopped; casinos could be next
What will Dawn and Karol do??? There will be rioting in the streets!
I figured their forays to AC would pay for any budget problems NJ had!
An Experiment
I usually play the micro limits at any online site I play, whether it's no-limit or limit. Well I decided to up my limits for once. This is only a test. Playing some low limit I was able to cash $150 out of Titan and Party Poker. It's been sitting there while I try to decide what to do with it. I decided to put $50 into Full Tilt and give a go @ the 2-4 limits. I'm doing this for a couple of reasons. I want to build the bankroll a little faster, and will do this only for $50, if I blow it, I won't be throwing in more money. Basically, at the micro-limits it's a tough grind. You wait, wait, wait, get a monster, and BAM, you win $5.00. This will put a little more meaning into the amounts being bet, and a little more excitement into the grind.
I started this morning. The key thing for me to do is to stick with the full table games, and focus on patience. I only played a little this morning, and patience did fail me when I decided to play Q10 from middle position. I hit a Q (QJ7) on the flop. I bet it, got a re-raise, and just called. The turn came an Ace, I bet. Guy called. The river was a blank, I bet, he thought and thought and then folded. I'm glad I won, but I'm kickin' myself for playing it. Anyway, I didn't play long (about two rotations), but I finished up $30.
I'll keep you up to date on how I progress.
Why, oh why do I tilt...
And KNOW I'm tilting, but continue to go down that destructive path!
Thursday morning, I had $25 left in Party Poker after cashing out another $50 (from the free $20 they gave me). I blew threw $10 of it. So last night, I played and turned the $15.00 into $35.00.
So this morning, I decide to try to make some quick money. It's all free anyway now. So I take $15 and hop at their $1/$2 limit table. I quickly blow threw that, trying to bluff even when I know I shoulded. I blow through that. I take $10.00 to the .50/1.00 limit table... and proceed to blow through that. (I've tilted myself for playing @ the 1/2 when I know I shouldn't have). Then I say screw it, major tilting for blowing through $30 of my $35, I take the remainder (it's actually $6 plus change), to their lowest NL (.10/.25) and wait for a hand and push. I get dealt AK a few hands in, and preflop there's a small raise. I re-raise from the BB, and one limper, re-raises, then another puts another big raise, limp-raiser, pushes all-in, so does next player, and me, knowing one of them has aces... calls (both had me covered). Now I don't know their hands until all cards are dealt. And watching it, the flop comes x-Q-J. I'm golden after the turn of a 10. Follow that up with a Q on the river. The first raiser (not the limp-raiser) has the aces, which I would have cracked, if the limp-raiser didn't show his pocket Js for the full boat.
This entire morning was a joke and a tilt fest of which I knew I was doing and shouldn't have been playing. But I did anyway. WHY???? So my party poker account is depleted. Now I just have to watch for them to throw some more cash my way. I still have about $30 on Titan (blew threw $10 of that online in a mini-tilt fest). Plus, $150 sitting in my firepay account. I don't want to hit that, because I want to cash that out and put that money towards either a laptop or a Xbox 360.
This weekend I might be playing in my brother-in-laws game. He usually tries to put one together when I'm in town. It's a $50 buy-in, he usually has 9-10 people. Winner usually takes home $250, and the last two times I've played, I was that winner! What I like about it is that there are plenty of chips there is plenty of play and you're never worried about the blinds!
Father's Day, Kids Say The Darndest Things, and That was My Idea!
OK, I missed the World Blogger Championship on Pokerstars today. Father's day, and the family and I went to see, Cars. Funny movie (but I love Pixar movies). If you plan on seeing it. Stay for the credits. There is a hilarious scene where the cars are watching other Pixar movies. I had tears in my eyes.
I've noticed this trend for a few years now, so it really irks me. Many moons ago, when I was in college the first time, I took a marketing class. One of the projects, was to create an ad campaign for a niche product. Basically, something that there wasn't a big market for already. So my group (me and two girls) first weret going to do a better Playgirl. From what I was told (I swear I wouldn't know), Playgirl was pretty lame. The girls thought it was cheesey and had no real content, whereas Playboy has the adult side, but is more than just a nudie mag (It is???) Anyway, we ended up scrapping that idea (I had no problem doing it, I forgot why it was scrapped) and went with marketing a shower gel towards men. There wasn't one on the market, they were either gender neutral or aimed towards women. So we drew up storyboards, for a commercial and we thought we did really well. We only got a B on the project, and from the response and questions from the teacher, we felt he gave us that grade because he didn't think the product would sell. NOW I SEE COMMERCIALS FOR BODY GEL FOR MEN ALL THE TIME!!!! SOMEONE OWES US ROYALTIES!!!
One evening I was picking out books to read to my daughter before she goes to bed (she's 2 1/2). I asked her if she wanted Curious George. "No, it sucks."
Good night everybody.
Who's The Bigger Donkey?
I think it was me, because I knew I was self-destructing. I was playing some $.50/$1.00 limit on Party Poker last night. I have $30 in there, and bought in for $10. There are lots of action at the table, not allowing limps and stuff, so I'm waiting for hands. I had my buy in up to 15 and down to 5. Finally at one point with about $9 bucks after an hour, I'm getting frustrated. And I feel myself becoming self-destructive.
I'm dealt pocket 9s in the SB. I raise and get a re-raise from the button (who limped) and I call (we're the only two in the hand).
The flop is 8 high (8-6-2 rainbow). I BET and right there I actually think.. "I'm probably beat here, but I'm going broke with this hand." I bet, button raises, I re-raise, and he caps it.
Turn is a J, same process.. capping betting.
River is a K, same process... I end up all-in.
He flips over pocket 5s. I double up. I asked him who he thought was the bigger donkey.. he didn't know either.
Funny hand later, I'm dealt KJo (which everyone knows is 98% to win preflop), so I raised, and got a couple of callers.
Flop comes: K-7-8. One guy checks, I bet, 2nd guy folds, checker calls.
Turn: 9. Checker BETS... oh crap, don't tell me he hit two pair or his straight. I call.
River: 10. CRAP! now I KNOW he hit his straight. He had to! I'm waiting for him to bet, I have it on AUTO-CHECK in case he checks to induce a bet, I'll just check (though I'll call if he bets). Suddenly it hits me. I HIT A STRAIGHT. Sweet. He bets, I re-raise, he calls. All he had was a pair of 9s.
Ended up finishing the session up an extra 17 bucks.
Another Day, Another Quads.
Not normally a fan of PartyPoker.com, but they gave me $20 to play, I can cash out after I played 200 raked hands. Did this once before a couple of months ago, but hated the software. I decided this time to play 0.50/1.00, limit this time. I did enjoy their limit better than the no limit side of things (I hate their damn slide bar!)
The limit was a bit high for my $20, but since it's limit I wasn't going to lose it all on a mediocre hand. At the same time I played 6 handed, which allowed me to open up my starting hand requirem
Dealt QQ. Flop comes QKQ. That's nice.
What's nicer, is my opponent flopped a straight draw, that came on the river with a J. Was able to get him all-in, and make a nice chunk.
I was able to play about 100 raked hands, and turn turn the $20.00 into $70.00. Maybe I'll stick around this time.
