You have JJ vs AK. You're a slight favorite, but for agruments sake we'll say it's 50-50. You raise, and AK just flat calls. The flop comes 5-3-9 rainbow (you're about 75% favorite). You bet the pot. AK calls.. TURN is a 9 (you're about an 85% favorite). You bet, AK again calls (OK so he's a donkey). The RIVER is a K. You check, he bets, you make a crying call.
Now the conventional wisdom is it's a suck out. Is this truly a suck out?
Yes, after the Turn you were a 85% favorite. But TECHNICALLY he had a 50/50 chance to HIT an A or K by the river, not just on the flop.
Luck plays a HUGE factor in poker. You have no control of how the cards come out. That's all predetermined by the shuffle. SKILL comes into play to determine how much money you'll win or lose DEPENDING on luck. The TRUE skill comes in reading and being able to get the most out of winning hands and losing the least when you're beat.
So... SKILL is not about negating the effects of LUCK over time, but using LUCK to your benefit.
The Race.
I'll Only Play A Quick One!
I burned through my FullTilt bankroll a month or so ago, and the majority of my Titan Poker bankroll, being a donkey. I've been reluctant to put money back in FTP. So I've been using Titan to slowly build that up. I've also switched to limit (again, these are micro limits).
This morning, I had some time before work and figured I'd play some .25/.50 limit. I hop to a table and wait until I'm in the BB. First hand, Ah-Qh. Very nice. It limps around to me (seriously about 6 limpers). I raise, everyone calls.
FLOP: 4h-5h-Ac. SWEET! Top pair and nut flush draw. The SB checks, I bet, EVERYONE calls. Nice lookin' pot.
TURN: 7h- let's hope no one was crazy enough to call me with a 3h-6h or 6h-8h. I bet, and am raised and re-raised, by two people, until it's capped.
River: Jh. I bet out, still think it's good, and it ends up being capped again.
One guy shows 3h-6c (whew!), the second guy showed Khx. Ended up tripling my $5.00 buy-in. Went one round and finished with about $17 and padded my Titan roll a bit.
I Missed It By *That* Much!
I was listening to Phil Gordon's Poker Edge Podcast (from ESPN) and he commented that this week he was actually in Bristol, CT. That's the location of ESPN's headquarters. It's also about 20 minutes west of Hartford, CT... which is where I live. Of course, I was listening to it this morning, but it was posted yesterday. At the end he informs his listeners that he would be going to Foxwoods to play some 1-2 No Limit! AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!! I sooooo would have dropped everything and headed down last night if I knew he was going to be there! Sonofabitch!
Limit vs NL... online.
I think when it comes to online poker, Limit is more my game. I keep a small bankroll on Titan Poker and it has gotten low. I started to build it up slowly playing their micro limits, NL game. WELL, that wasn't going well. I'd get impatient and make a mistake (which I do a lot) and all the money I've made up was gone. (I'm definitely better at NL live than online).
Last night I switched over to Limit and jumped in with my entire miniscule balance. I was playing the "higher" micro limits (.25/.50). And managed to get get some of the bankroll back. It was a full table and it slowly broke down to only two people left. So I played HU cash game for a bit. At first, I had a hard time because my opponent had a HUGE stack compared to mine, and he could call me down to the river with A high. I had to make sure I had a hand (I had never played heads up CASH game before and it was a bit different feel than a heads up SnG). Overall we were about even for the HU, he was probalby ahead a couple of bucks. Occasionally a 3rd person would jump in, but wouldn't last too long. Finally monster stack left, leaving me with someone who had about half of the chips that I had. A few hands in, he was about to go broke, when a 3rd person jumped in. I finished off the first guy, and figured I'd play a hand or two with the next guy before calling it a night. About 30 minutes later I had his entire stack too. Ahh... heads up, how I love thee.
For the night, limit got me back all the money I lost playing NL. I really should leave the NL to live play.... I need to get to Foxwoods.
Titan Freeroll (Weekly Depositors)
Had the opportunity to play in this freeroll Saturday evening. As it's a freeroll, I don't have a lot at stake in it. It goes off with 803 people. Top 30 pay.
So VERY early on in the tournament, a guy at our table gets a large chip lead. I'm guessing he had to leave or something because he started going all-in on every hand. He was showing such crap and getting lucky. Then he starts to lose a few of them and is no longer the chip leader. I finally decide to look him up. I'm in the SB, he was in middle position and pushes all-in. I have K9o. I call (I have about 80 more chips than he does), figuring it's a freeroll, so if I'm out, no biggie, but if I win, I have a nice chip stack. I am a little worried because if any of the other folks wake up with a hand, they might call. But hopefully my call scares them away. All for naught, it folds around to him. Sure enough, he actually had a hand AT that time and cripples me. Oh well. Blinds are 10/20, but I have a few hands before I'm in the blinds again.
Long story short, about I managed to work that stack up to about 17,000, and finished in 49th place. On a stupid play too. Pushed All-in on a missed (something like 228) flop with AK. He had an overpair and I was gone. But was still proud of my strong battle back.
HERPES LIVES!
Heads Up: Over Betting
I love heads up play. Full Tilt has 4 person heads up tournaments. I LOVE THOSE! Booked a win in one last night. Which I made the bad beat I took right before that easier to take
--- 18 person $8 token tournament. First hand I"m dealt JJ in the SB- Button raises 3 times BB. I re-raise 3 times that. He pushes All-in. Too me that says, no AA or KK since he'd want to put in a smaller raise to keep me on the hook. Maybe QQs, but could easily be a coin flip, and I'd risk a coin flip early to double up and have a nice healthy stack. Wasn't a coin flip... he pops, Kd-3d. Hits his K on the river. I'm out. I took it OK. Stayed around the table to talk some sh-t. Was not suprised to see that guy knocked out 3 people later. So I hoped into that 4 person HU tournament.
Anyway on to the Subject matter. I had some time this morning while my daughter was waking up and jumped into a $5 heads up match. Blinds are low, and I'm widdling the guy down. Every once in a while, I'll check the flop, he'll push 300-400 into an 60 pot?!?! Unless I have a hand, I'm folding. Even if he is bluffing. I'm not going to lose 2/3rd of my stack for 30 chips. So I wait until I get a hand, have him do it, and pop him back. He folds. Sure, he'll get some back, but still. At least he didn't do it every hand. Probably when he hit low or middle pair, or had a small pair. We checked a lot of hands down when he had nothing. But I just couldn't see the benefit of doing that, he would win VERY little, unless I had a strong hand.
He liked to slowplay Kings (which he got twice). Once he won a little bit off me: I hit middle pair, and he bet min amount on flop and turn and made a 1/2 pot bet (still small I think half pot was 80) on the river. 2nd time he slowplayed them, I flopped (or turned, forget which) a straight. Got him down to 400. Few hands later, he went all-in with J4 and I had AT, which held up.
The Lesson: In Heads Up, don't overbet the pot early on. You'll only get called by a strong hand. If you're bluffing you're going to lose chips, and if you have a monster, you won't action that often.
At the Same Time
I was also playing in the $8 token (value: $26) 18 player SnG. Top 5 get tokens, 6 gets money. That one took some patience. I got no good hands and saw my stack dwindling. Before the merge, I was able to double up which put me at just over the original starting chips of $1500. I finally got some cards and chips, stole some pots, and was manage to make my way to the token cash.
Now I need to decide if I want to use it to win a $75 token or enter a Guarnteed $26 tournament. Hmm...
---------------
In one of the SnGs I was playing, I found this hand to be interesting. Basically, I played a hand a certain way, NOT to win money, but to NOT provide info.
In the BB (30/60), I'm dealt pocket 6s. It folds around to the Button who calls, the SB completes, and I check. I was kind of worried about the button limp. Button was known to raise if it folded to him or had minimal limpers.
(180 in the pot)
The Flop wasn't too bad, 2c-Kh-3c.
SB bets, 120, I call, Button folds... guess I didn't need to worry. My call was poor play. I thought I might have the best hand, but still wanted the set before I got aggressive.
(420 in the pot)
TURN: 4d Gives me a gutshot, and still only one over card. But I'm still scared.
SB Bets 360, I call. I only call because if I bet and he re-raises a significant amount, I'll fold.
(1140 in the pot)
RIVER: 6s, no flush possiblities. My fears are gone, but now I'm embarrassed about how I played this hand.
SB bets 600, I re-raise to 1800, he folds. Now I may have done the same type of re-raise should I have played this hand better from the beginning. But I knowingly raised that hoping he'd fold and I wouldn't have to show my catch, no value bet there.
The worst part of this hand is that I'm the chip leader (started hand as chip leader w/ 3660 vs SB's 2355) and I still had this fear. Felt like a complete donkey on this hand.
The funny thing is that it worked for me. I was more than likely ahead the entire time and won more money than if I would have been aggressive early one.
Interesting observation: I could have played this correctly, two ways:
- Aggressive after the flop- wouldn't have made so much money.
- Confident my hand was best... same way I played it, got the same amount (maybe a min raise on the river to try to get a call).
Last Minute Decision to Play
Last night, instead of playing poker, I watched a bunch of it that I had TiVo'd. WSOP 2006, Poker Superstars III and GSN High Stakes. First, ESPN can put together a good show, but can't TOUCH High Stakes Poker with a 10' pole! The best poker on TV, and there's A LOT out there. Poker Superstars III is pretty good, but it's not about the poker, but about the tournament format.
Anyway, afterwards, the Mrs and I watch some shows we had TiVo'd (Treasure Hunters and My Name Is Earl), then she goes to bed. It's getting late, so I figure I'll head to bed shortly too. Hop on the computer, um.. just to check my poker sites (can't get on to Titan to verify I'm registered for the Weekly Depositors Freeroll on Saturday). While I'm on Full Tilt, I decide to see if there are any heads up matches waiting to take off. None at the moment. OK. Well, let's just browse through the SnGs. Hmmm... Well, there's a $8+ token 18 person SnG about to take off. Yeah, why not. CLICK. Oh look a $5 18 person SnG is also about to take off. I could use a little extra cash in my account... CLICK.
Can you say junkie?
Anyway, those turned out to be good choices.
$5 SnG. This one I started off strong, getting some good hands and building an early chip stack.
One key hand - Blinds 25/50 (no SB).
Dealt (K-Jo) on the button. Two limpers, I limp (not a great play, but didn't want to be re-raised with this hand), BB checks.
Flop was decent for me... K - J - K. Gotta play carefully in order to get any money.
BB check, check, bet 150, I call, checkers fold. I'm praying for a K or a J in their hand!
Turn is a blank. Bettor checks. I want to bet, but figure I'll lose him, so I check.
River is a 9, Bettor Checks. Pot is about 500, I bet 350, which... is enough to get a call as he 8-9. He was surprised to see my KJ. If only he knew he was 98% to lose preflop!
We hit the "final table" (basically the 2 tables merged). I had 8000 in chips, 2nd place had 3500. Unfortunately, my stack would fluctuate highly as we got closer to the bubble (top 4 paid).
I was almost crippled with 7 people left, I stepped on a landmind. I was 2nd in chips (5220) and tangled with 4th in chips (but we were close in chips).
I picked up AQo on the button (blinds were 200/400).
PREFLOP: Folds to me I raise to 1400, SB just calls, BB folds.
FLOP: 9-2-2 rainbow. WHIFF, but with just a smooth call, he probably missed this too. He could have 99 (but might have raised preflop), and could have A9. He could have a smaller pair too. I thought and pushed all-in for 3820. He thinks, and thinks. It looks like he's going to time-out fold. So I'm feeling better. He finally calls, and flips over AK. ARRRRGGHH!
TURN is a 3. I'm pretty much done. Gonna be left with less than 1000 in chips.
I check my other SnG to see how I'm fairing in that one. I play my hand there.
I come back to this table, have a marginal hand and want to double check my chip stack before pushing all-in. HUH??? I have my original stack plus 200. Click on Hand history...
AH, the river was a 2nd 3. Giving us BOTH 2s and 3s with an A kicker... SWEET SUCKOUT!
It rejuvenated me. I played hard, and managed to get heads up with a slight chip DISadvantage. Worked it up to a BIG chip advantage... dropped it down to about 5000 to 22,000. Built it back up to even money, then proceed to drop it and finish in 2nd.
I felt good about the play and was glad I finished with some good cash.
New Section
I put in a new section on the sidebar today.
I don't often tell bad beats, and I can usually let them run off of me without too much tilting, but sometimes I just need to vent. So go ahead and skip it unless you like to read bad beats (these aren't crushing beats, just ones that pop up day-to-day that all poker players come across.
